Tripwires
- An artificial signal, confirmed by a second observatoryClosest calls: the Wow! signal (1977, never repeated) and BLC1 (2019, human interference).Not triggered
- A biosignature at 5 sigma, confirmed by an independent teamK2-18b reached about 3 sigma in 2025 and is disputed. Mars' Cheyava Falls is a "potential" biosignature.Watching
- A Mars rock with possible life, analysed in a lab on EarthThe Sapphire Canyon sample is sealed on Mars; Mars Sample Return was cancelled in 2026.Stalled
- Material of non-Earth origin, checked by independent labs and publishedClaims of "alien metamaterials" and 2023 ocean spherules haven't passed independent review.Not triggered
- Raw sensor data showing flight beyond known physics, with chain of custodyThe 2026 Pentagon files add videos but no raw radar or sensor data that settles a case.Not triggered
- An official confirmation of non-human craft or bodies, with evidenceSworn claims in 2023, no evidence shown. AARO said in 2024 it found no such program.Not triggered
- An interstellar object that natural physics can't explain'Oumuamua (2017) and 3I/ATLAS (2025) both fit natural explanations so far.Watching
- Technology gases (like CFCs) in an exoplanet's airWebb can test a few nearby planets; nothing found.Not triggered
- Life found in an ocean world (Europa, Enceladus)Europa Clipper arrives at Jupiter in 2030. Enceladus has the ingredients.Watching
- The share of truly unexplained UAP cases rises as data improvesIn AARO's 2024 report, 21 of 757 new cases (about 3%) merited further analysis.Watching
Checked 31 October 2026. "Watching" means there is a live candidate; "stalled" means the test exists but can't happen yet.
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Indicators
6,000+confirmed exoplanetsNASA Exoplanet Archive passed 6,000 in September 20251 in 5Sun-like stars may have an Earth-size planet in the habitable zoneEstimate from Kepler data (Petigura et al., 2013)66 yearsof SETI listeningSince Frank Drake's Project Ozma in 19600confirmed alien signalsEvery candidate so far was natural or human-made1,652UAP reports held by AARO by mid-2024AARO annual report, November 20247Pentagon UAP file releases in 2026PURSUE releases on war.gov/UFO, May to October 202612,618sightings in Project Blue Book701 stayed "unidentified" (1952 to 1969)0confirmed alien lifeformsThree biosignature candidates are still under debate
Why tripwires?
It's easy to move the goalposts in both directions. Believers can call any blurry video proof, and skeptics can wave away anything. Setting the bar in advance keeps us honest: if one of these is hit, the meters on the home page move, whatever we thought before.